Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)
Identifieur interne : 000197 ( 2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000196; suivant : 000198Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)
Auteurs : Ruiyun Li [Royaume-Uni] ; Sen Pei [États-Unis] ; Bin Chen [États-Unis] ; Yimeng Song [Hong Kong] ; Tao Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Wan Yang [États-Unis] ; Jeffrey Shaman [États-Unis]Source :
- Science (New York, N.y.) [ 0036-8075 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
Url:
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb3221
PubMed: 32179701
PubMed Central: 7164387
Affiliations:
- Hong Kong, Royaume-Uni, République populaire de Chine, États-Unis
- Californie, État de New York
- New York, Pékin
- Université Columbia
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PMC:7164387Le document en format XML
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novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)</title><author><name sortKey="Li, Ruiyun" sort="Li, Ruiyun" uniqKey="Li R" first="Ruiyun" last="Li">Ruiyun Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>London W2 1PG</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pei, Sen" sort="Pei, Sen" uniqKey="Pei S" first="Sen" last="Pei">Sen Pei</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de New York</region><settlement type="city">New York</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Columbia</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Bin" sort="Chen, Bin" uniqKey="Chen B" first="Bin" last="Chen">Bin Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Song, Yimeng" sort="Song, Yimeng" uniqKey="Song Y" first="Yimeng" last="Song">Yimeng Song</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Hong Kong</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>The University of Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Tao" sort="Zhang, Tao" uniqKey="Zhang T" first="Tao" last="Zhang">Tao Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 10084, P. R. China.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 10084</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Wan" sort="Yang, Wan" uniqKey="Yang W" first="Wan" last="Yang">Wan Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de New York</region><settlement type="city">New York</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Columbia</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shaman, Jeffrey" sort="Shaman, Jeffrey" uniqKey="Shaman J" first="Jeffrey" last="Shaman">Jeffrey Shaman</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de New York</region><settlement type="city">New York</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Columbia</orgName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.y.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0036-8075</idno><idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus
(SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic
potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in
conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian
inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2,
including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate
86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January
2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was
55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers,
undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These
findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this
virus will be particularly challenging.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chan, J F" uniqKey="Chan J">J. F. Chan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, S" uniqKey="Yuan S">S. Yuan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kok, K H" uniqKey="Kok K">K. H. Kok</name></author><author><name sortKey="To, K K" uniqKey="To K">K. K. To</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chu, H" uniqKey="Chu H">H. Chu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, J" uniqKey="Yang J">J. Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xing, F" uniqKey="Xing F">F. Xing</name></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, J" uniqKey="Liu J">J. Liu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yip, C C" uniqKey="Yip C">C. C. Yip</name></author><author><name sortKey="Poon, R W" uniqKey="Poon R">R. W. Poon</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tsoi, H W" uniqKey="Tsoi H">H. W. Tsoi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lo, S K" uniqKey="Lo S">S. K. Lo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chan, K H" uniqKey="Chan K">K. H. Chan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Poon, V K" uniqKey="Poon V">V. K. Poon</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chan, W M" uniqKey="Chan W">W. M. Chan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ip, J D" uniqKey="Ip J">J. D. Ip</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cai, J P" uniqKey="Cai J">J. P. Cai</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cheng, V C" uniqKey="Cheng V">V. C. Cheng</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, H" uniqKey="Chen H">H. Chen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hui, C K" uniqKey="Hui C">C. K. Hui</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yuen, K Y" uniqKey="Yuen K">K. Y. Yuen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P. Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hao, X" uniqKey="Hao X">X. Hao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lau, E H Y" uniqKey="Lau E">E. H. Y. Lau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, J Y" uniqKey="Wong J">J. Y. Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, K S X0a M" uniqKey="Leung K">K. S.
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G. Roberts</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Hong Kong</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Californie</li><li>État de New York</li></region><settlement><li>New York</li><li>Pékin</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université Columbia</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Li, Ruiyun" sort="Li, Ruiyun" uniqKey="Li R" first="Ruiyun" last="Li">Ruiyun Li</name></noRegion></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="État de New York"><name sortKey="Pei, Sen" sort="Pei, Sen" uniqKey="Pei S" first="Sen" last="Pei">Sen Pei</name></region><name sortKey="Chen, Bin" sort="Chen, Bin" uniqKey="Chen B" first="Bin" last="Chen">Bin Chen</name><name sortKey="Shaman, Jeffrey" sort="Shaman, Jeffrey" uniqKey="Shaman J" first="Jeffrey" last="Shaman">Jeffrey Shaman</name><name sortKey="Yang, Wan" sort="Yang, Wan" uniqKey="Yang W" first="Wan" last="Yang">Wan Yang</name></country><country name="Hong Kong"><noRegion><name sortKey="Song, Yimeng" sort="Song, Yimeng" uniqKey="Song Y" first="Yimeng" last="Song">Yimeng Song</name></noRegion></country><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Zhang, Tao" sort="Zhang, Tao" uniqKey="Zhang T" first="Tao" last="Zhang">Tao Zhang</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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